Reports about OpenAI’s annualised revenue have unsettled AI investors, with figures near $50 billion for September compared with earlier indications near $70 billion. Differences in accounting methods and year-end projections are central to the story.
October 10, 2026: Conflicting reports about OpenAI’s revenue outlook have put fresh attention on how private artificial-intelligence companies report growth. A Financial Times report, subsequently covered by Reuters, said OpenAI’s annualised revenue was close to $50 billion at the end of September—about $20 billion below figures previously indicated in media reports. Bloomberg reporting, meanwhile, said OpenAI expects to reach or exceed a $70 billion annualised revenue run rate by the end of 2026, driven largely by enterprise growth.
Is OpenAI cutting its full-year revenue forecast?
The headlines require care. The reported figure of roughly $50 billion refers to an annualised run rate at the end of September, not necessarily recognised revenue for the full calendar year. A run rate extrapolates a shorter period of sales across a year and is not the same as audited annual revenue.
Reports also point to differences in how OpenAI and rival Anthropic calculate or present revenue from cloud partners. That makes direct comparisons difficult. OpenAI has not publicly confirmed every detail in the reports, and the figures should be treated as reported estimates rather than audited results.
Why did markets react?
Investors view OpenAI as an important indicator of demand for generative AI and the infrastructure supporting it. If revenue growth falls short of expectations, investors may question how quickly spending on chips, data centres and cloud services will translate into returns. AI-linked stocks reportedly fell after the initial report, before later reporting about OpenAI’s year-end target complicated the picture.
The episode does not, by itself, prove that demand for AI is weakening or that the AI market is a bubble. It highlights how sensitive valuations can be to private-company forecasts, definitions of revenue and the enormous costs associated with AI infrastructure.
What should businesses and investors watch?
- Whether OpenAI or its investors provide clearer, comparable financial disclosures.
- Growth in paid enterprise use and recurring revenue, not just annualised projections.
- Capital expenditure and commitments for computing infrastructure.
- How other AI companies define revenue and report cloud-partner sales.
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