October 12, 2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a strengthening El Niño could influence global temperatures and rainfall patterns during October–December 2026. In a climate update published on October 8, the agency said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were forecast to rise to exceptionally high levels as the event approached its expected peak around December.

The WMO’s seasonal outlook describes a climate driver that can shift the odds of particular weather patterns across regions. It does not mean every place will experience the same conditions, nor does it provide a precise local forecast for an individual town or district.

What El Niño does

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that changes atmospheric circulation and can influence weather far beyond the Pacific. Its effects vary by season and region. Some areas may face increased heat or drought risk, while others may experience heavier rainfall or flooding. Local impacts also depend on other climate patterns, geography and short-term weather systems.

The WMO also highlighted the Indian Ocean Dipole and sea-surface temperatures in other ocean basins as factors that can interact with the broader seasonal outlook. These interacting patterns make it important to use regional forecasts rather than assume that El Niño alone determines the weather.

Why it matters for agriculture and public planning

Changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature can affect planting decisions, irrigation demand, reservoirs, electricity use, ecosystems and public-health planning. Farmers and water managers may need to consider a range of scenarios, including the possibility of uneven rainfall, dry spells or intense rain events.

Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities and broad patterns; they are not a guarantee that a particular district will experience drought or floods. India’s weather authorities will continue to provide the country-specific forecasts and warnings that are most relevant for decisions on farming, water storage and public safety.

What readers should watch

  • Updates from the WMO and national meteorological agencies.
  • Regional rainfall and temperature forecasts, especially before making agricultural or travel decisions.
  • Official drought, flood, reservoir and heat advisories as the season develops.

Source

Reporting note: The seasonal outlook cited here was published by WMO on October 8, 2026. Forecasts are updated as new observations and model guidance become available.